Cardamom predictions
A machine-learning model and backtested statistical methods, trained on 10+ years of Spices Board auction history — refreshed with every auction, verified against the archive.
This week's watchlist
Weather & arrivals
Other spices · Cochin
Written by AI from the day's Spices Board auction figures · may contain errors · not advice
Price outlook
Computed from 3,221 auction days (07-Nov-2014 → 09-Oct-2026) · updated with every archive refresh.
Recent trend & 30-day projection
Last 90 auction days, then a dotted seasonal projection with a percentile band.
Seasonal price calendar
Each month's average price relative to its year's average, across the full archive. Above 100 = historically expensive month (good to sell); below 100 = historically cheap (good to buy).
Year-ahead seasonal curve
Next 12 months: current price level carried along the historical seasonal shape.
Arrival (supply) outlook
Expected monthly arrivals — average of the same month in the last 3 years.
Supply & demand signals
Arrivals, sell-through and shock detection for the current period.
Arrivals vs price relationship
Computed from month-on-month changes across the full archive.
Current streak & historical odds it ends
Based on how long similar up/down streaks lasted historically.
Which centre is likely to price better
Weighted averages, last 30 auction days at each e-auction centre.
| Auctioneer (top by avg, 30d) | Wtd avg | Qty sold |
|---|---|---|
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Latest auction vs the recent norm
Z-scores of the latest day's price and arrivals against the trailing 60 auction days. |z| > 2 is flagged unusual.
| Check | Latest | 60-day norm | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
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How these numbers are made
Everything on this page is computed in your browser from the same Spices Board auction archive that powers the Charts page — transparent, backtested methods you can verify yourself:
- Next-auction estimate — a 70/30 ensemble of a statistical anchor (latest price blended with the 5-day average) and a machine-learning model; both were validated in a walk-forward backtest over the full archive. Band is ± one standard deviation of recent day-to-day moves.
- ML model — a ridge-regression autoregression (price lags, moving averages and seasonality features) trained in your browser on the entire archive each time the page loads; no data leaves your device.
- 30 / 90-day outlook — current 10-day level × the historical seasonal ratio between today's month and the target month.
- Seasonal index — each month's weighted average ÷ that year's average, averaged across all years in the archive (100 = a normal month).
- Price corridor — 10th–90th percentile of the last 30 auction-day averages.
- Arrivals outlook — same-month average of the last 3 years.
- Elasticity — least-squares slope of monthly % price change vs monthly % arrival change.
- Reversal odds — among all historical up/down streaks that reached the current length, the share that ended the next day.
- Anomaly watch — z-score of the latest day against the trailing 60 auction days.
Source: Spices Board India small-cardamom e-auctions (Puttady & Bodinayakanur). Indicative, not advice.